Saturday, May 9, 2009

Trading Signal: Which Makes Big Gains


Lots of traders want to follow an objective Forex trading signal that has the potential to make money and in this article we will give you a free one you can use, it works and the logic behind it is easy to understand. Let's take a look at it.
The signal we are going to look at is one which has been used by savvy traders since the late seventies and was originally credited to trading legend Richard Donchian. It works in any financial market that trends and of course we all know currencies trend long term and that's why this signal is so effective. Here is the equation which generates the signal.
Buy a beak to a new 4 week high in a currency and hold it, until a new 4 week low is hit. When a new 4 week low occurs, liquidate the long and enter a short. Hold the position until the next 4 week high is hit and keep reversing, on new 4 week highs or lows and always maintain an open position in the market.
That's it - you won't get much simpler than that! You don't even need a computer to generate the signal, you can do it in your head.
You're probably thinking, that's too simple to work!
Well test it and you will see, that not only does it work, it will get you in on all the biggest and best trends and allow you to make great profits.
In Forex trading simple systems works best, as they are very robust in the face of brutal ever changing market conditions. If you make a system to complicated, it will break. The signal is based on breakout methodology which is a timeless way to make profits because all the big trends start and continue, from new chart highs and lows.
The signal works best, when trading several different uncorrelated currency pairs and can also trade other markets for more diversification. It takes a lot of discipline to execute the signal and hold long term but if you use this signal, you will have the potential to make a lot of money long term.
Many traders like Forex robots, with fancy names and glossy packaging but this signal long term will beat all of these trendy cheap robots and it has something they don't - a real track record of gains.
Savvy traders use this signal to seek long term profits and you should too. It costs nothing to look at, its free. You don't get many things in life that are free and can make you money, so check out this signal called the 4 Week Rule and you maybe glad you

Forex: Exchange Rates View


Profits are gained and lost on the foreign exchange, or 'Forex', market due to fluctuations in the exchange rate. This fact may seem like common knowledge, but one should not take for granted how exchange rates are determined.There is actually a very rich history behind the concept of the exchange rate, and it is important that you understand why things came to be as they are -- as well as how to capitalize on that knowledge.This quick tutorial on exchange rates will help you do just that.First, let us look at the simplest definition of an exchange rate. An exchange rate is the value of one currency in relation to another. If one U.S. dollar is worth $1.20 Canadian, then the exchange rate is 1:1.2, or 1.2 for the CAD/USD currency pair.What does this really mean, though? Why is it that one currency can be worth more than another, and who decides?If you look back to the earlier part of the 20th Century, you'll recall that most currencies of the world were back by precious metals, like silver and gold.It used to be that the United States followed the 'gold standard', which 'pegged' the Dollar to the price of 1 ounce of gold. All other currencies were then 'pegged' to the Dollar and allowed to fluctuate in either direction by a margin of no more than 1 percent.This type of exchange rate, although it allowed for minor fluctuation, was considered a "fixed exchange rate".Now, fast-forward to the latter half of the century, and you find that the 'gold standard' has been dropped, along with the fixed rate model of exchange. Instead, the foreign exchange market now operates primarily on a 'fluctuating exchange rate'.Fluctuating exchange rates are governed by the market forces of supply and demand. If the demand for a currency exceeds the supply, then the exchange rate (and value) of that currency will rise.Likewise, if the supply of a currency exceeds market demand, then the value of that currency (and its exchange rate) will drop.We see this happening today with the U.S. Dollar. In order to keep up with government spending, the federal reserve prints more and more dollars, then sells them to other countries as 'debt'.The market forces which previously gave the dollar its strength -- such as oil exports and oil transaction denominated in U.S. dollars - have eroded. Thus, we not only find the exchange rate of the dollar weakened, but also the exchange rates of many of our closest trading partners.The Japanse Yen, for example, has fallen even more than the dollar. Part of this is due an overall crash in the Asian market, but it is also linked to the fact that much of Japan's economic growth at the end of the last century depended upon exports to the United States.This is just one example of how market forces affect exchange rates, but it is a useful one for examining some of the factors involved in rate fluctuations.If you would like a real world exchange rate tutorial, I recommend opening a demo trading account with an online broker. Do some test trades to get a feel for things, and make note of current exchange rates.Then, make sure you stay abreast of world and financial news, and see if you can spot the relationships between major announcements and rate fluctuations!

Saturday, February 21, 2009

Effects Of Sales Growth On Stock Performance

If you go back through the history of the stock market there is a recurring theme among those stocks which have had some of the strongest price appreciation and it’s related to their Sales and Earnings Growth. Let’s look at two companies over the past few years and compare their Sales and Earnings Growth.
First let’s look at Microsoft (MSFT) which has hard meager Sales and Earnings Growth in 2002 and 2003. Since the market made a bottom in October of 2002 MSFT has seen very little price appreciation since then. Back in early October of 2002 MSFT was trading around $22 a share and in late March of 2004 MSFT was trading near $24 a share. Thus while the major averages saw significant gains from October of 2002 into the early part of 2004 MSFT was only up 9%.

Now let’s look at a stock which has been exhibiting strong Sales and Earnings Growth over the past year or so. As you can see below Taser (TASR) has seen accelerating Sales and Earnings Growth over the past two quarters which has been reflected in its stock price. TASR formed a "Cup and Handle" pattern before breaking out in September of 2003 and rose nearly 800% from September of 2003 through mid February of 2004.

As these examples show those companies which have accelerating Sales and Earnings Growth have the potential to perform very well while those with poor Sales and Earnings will languish even in a Bull Market environment. I would imagine those investors who have held MSFT over the past few years aren’t very happy as the stock price has virtually gone nowhere since October of 2002 into the early part of 2004.
The key is to recognize those companies which are starting to establish a trend of accelerating Sales and Earnings Growth before everyone else does which takes a lot of time and research. This is what I do every week as I spend over 20 hours a week looking for companies that are starting to show signs of accelerating Sales and Earnings Growt

Think To Manage Money


We often hear from students by letter, telephone, and in person at seminars, that they greatly desire to trade managed money.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, we also hear from students who want money managed for them. In either case, the experience can be gut wrenching.
This chapter should serve as a warning and a caution to both. Since your author has at one time or another engaged in managing money for others, I base what I have to say here on my own experiences and, if it please the reader, this may be entitled "Confessions of a Trader."
The psychological basis for successful trading is indeed a delicate subject. No one we have ever heard of has been able to pinpoint exactly what it is that gives one trader success while another trader fails. Although some claim to have done this, coming up with an attribute profile of the "average" winner, no one we know of has identified a set of common denominators among professional winning traders. Besides, which of us is "average?" Is it you?
Winning in the markets seems to involve a fine balance of traits that differ among winning traders. To make the identification of winning traders even more complicated, there seems to be a distinction between those traders who can successfully trade their own money and those traders who can successfully trade the money of others. I have met both.
Two of the most successful money managers I know personally began by trading managed money. They began trading other people’s money for lack of sufficient money of their own with which to trade. Later in their careers, when they did have sufficient money with which to trade their own account, they found that they failed miserably. They were not able to trade their own money with any degree of success. More than that, when they traded their own money simultaneously with trading managed money, they failed at both.
Upon further investigation, and after speaking with a number of traders who have tried both, I discovered that there are many traders who are successful at trading managed money, but who can’t trade their way out of their hat when trying to trade their own money. Invariably, upon further probing, some admitted that they were much more daring and courageous with other people’s money than they were when the money was their own.
Also in this group of those who trade better for others than themselves, I have been able to identify traders who said they were much more careful and conservative with the money of others than they were with money of their own.
So within this group of traders, all of them students of ours who can successfully trade managed money, some are successful because they are more daring with other people’s money, and some are successful because they are more careful with money not their own.
Next, we come to those traders who successfully manage their own money and who have attempted to manage money for others, but failed.
I have heard from quite a few traders who attempted to manage money for others. In this group I include those who have failed miserably. I have spoken with a number of students who have had the experience of losing at least half of the money under their management prior to returning the balance to those who invested with them. Amazingly, the answers are the same as with the group who successfully manage money. Managed money seems to be a "monkey" on their backs. They find that they trade too carefully, too conservatively when the money is not their own. Worse than that, when things go wrong with a trade, they do not act rationally and with the same cool determination as with their own money. When they trade their own account, they do not think of it as money. When they trade someone else’s account, all they can think of is that it is money. And, because it is not their own, they try their hardest not to lose it. Unfortunately, experience shows that what they fear the most happens - they do lose the money.
I have spoken with students who successfully manage their own money because they are more careful with their own than with the money of others. They, too, have failed with managed money, and have resigned themselves to trading only their own accounts.
Among the students and acquaintances, I have identified at least four categories of traders who attempt to manage money. I’m sure there are other categories, but these are the ones I’ve found:
1. Those who successfully manage money for others but cannot manage their own account with any great degree of success because they are too careful with their own money, while they are more daring with the money of others.
2. Those who successfully manage money for others but cannot manage their own account with any great degree of success because they are too daring with their own money, while they are more careful with the money of others.
3. Those who successfully manage their own money but fail with managed money because they are too careful when managing money for others.
4. Those who successfully manage their own money but fail with managed money because they are too daring when managing money for others.


Conclusions:

Among these students I found none who successfully traded both managed accounts and their own accounts. The size of the population for this study was too small to come up with any meaningful statistics, but there are some warnings and cautions that can be concluded.
To those of you who want to have your money managed, be aware that the individual success of any trader trading his/her own money is no guarantee that that person can successfully manage the money of others. It would seem to bear out the reality of placing managed money with a proven successful trader of managed money.
To those of you who want to manage money for others, be aware that successfully trading your own account is no guarantee that you will be able to successfully trade the account of other persons.
Failure in either of these situations is painful for all concerned! In fact, the pain can be so great as to prematurely end the trading hopes of either party.
Be very careful, because in both of these situations the result can be great personal pain. The pain may be both physical and mental, and can cause you to abort your trading career. I feel it is my duty to caution you about getting involved with managed money, whether you try to manage the money of others, or whether you want someone else to manage yours. The costs can be horrendous.
The responsibility of trading managed money can really wear you down. You may have to go for years without a vacation. You find yourself working late into the night, and working a significant portion of the weekends.
All work and no play is not a good thing for your trading career.
Interestingly, most of my students come to me relating that the reason they want to learn how to trade is so they can become independent and not have to work at a regular job. However, trading managed money is one of the most grueling jobs you can ever undertake.